[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST MON 04 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 3N23W 2N34W 2N40W 3N43W 3N50W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 7N14W. OTHERWISE
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY THE EQUATOR AT 40W...4S25W...1S18W...
SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 10W TO 25W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ANY SENSE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE LAST 24 TO
48 HOURS HAS DISAPPEARED AND/OR CONTINUES TO DISAPPEAR AS THE
FLOW FLATTENS OUT MORE AND MORE TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
OPEN GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...LEADS TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MAY OR MAY NOT
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPED AND NOW IS IN
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...CARVING OUT A TROUGH TOWARD THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES
THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
29N62W TO AN ATLANTIC 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N75W
TO A SOUTHERN GEORGIA 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N83W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 22N97W 25N90W 26N80W...
AND NORTH OF 24N106W 26N98W 30N90W...WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO COMPARATIVELY DRIER AREAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N83W
BY THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...20N74W IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...22N64W 20N58W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SOME FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF COLOMBIA AND
SOUTH OF PANAMA AND SOUTHWEST OF COSTA RICA. STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N68W TO 21N70W 20N74W 19N75W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE AREA OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 56W FROM A WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N55W TO 26N60W TO
22N68W. STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N68W TO
21N70W 20N74W 19N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N62W TO AN ATLANTIC
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N75W TO A SOUTHERN GEORGIA
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 58W AND 66W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N60W
30N58W BEYOND 32N55W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 32N34W. THE
SURFACE 1004 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N35W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER THROUGH 32N27W TO 25N30W TO 20N36W.

$$
HM/MT


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