[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST TUE 05 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N17W 2N29W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 4N TO INLAND OVER THE IVORY
COAST FROM 3W-7W. SMALL...SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
7W-25W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W
ATLC THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH OF THE NEAR COAST OF FLORIDA TO A
1021 MB HIGH OVER APALACHEE BAY ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS
WITH E TO SE FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLITUDE HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG 84W WHILE A WEAK S STREAM MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. CONFLUENT FLOW IS
CREATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND GENERATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 25N. WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS
TO 80 KT IS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST ADVECTING PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
REMAIN N OF 23N W OF 94W. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE E INTO THE W ATLC. THIS HAS ALLOWED
RETURN FLOW TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER E HONDURAS RESULTING
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA ACROSS JAMAICA TO
CENTRAL HONDURAS. UPSTREAM DRY UPPER AIR IS RESULTING IN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. TYPICAL
TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS THE NW ATLC WATERS AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 26N62W TO 22N68W COMING UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E TIP OF CUBA. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 23N. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS WELL N OF THE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED N
OUT OF THE REGION AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC THUS
DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS NEAR 32N37W MOVING
VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALL THAT REMAINS AT THE
SURFACE IS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N29W SW ALONG 24N33W TO
20N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL
REMAIN N OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NE OUT OF THE REGION. OVER THE E ATLC...LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SE OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N18W WITH
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA TO BEYOND
32N12W. RESULTING PATTERN IS PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
BUT A WEAK JET WITH WINDS TO 80 KT IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR CONVECTION IS BEING
GENERATED. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MADEIRA ISLANDS TO
JUST SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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