[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042303 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 04 APR 2005

...CORRECTED FOR DAYLIGHT TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N9W 2N25W 2N40W 1N50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 17W-33W AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 25W-40W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 4N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BASICALLY CONTROLS THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES AS
MOISTURE FROM THE PAC GETS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.  VERY DRY AIR
IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE SLOW MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE W GULF WITH DEEP SE WINDS COMING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN.  COLD FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO ENTER THE NW GULF
BY NOON WED WITH MOST DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE NEAR AND E OF
LOUISIANA.  FRONT LOOKS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING THRU THE SE GULF AS THE NEXT LOW APPEARS TO BE
QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN LAST'S WEEK STORM.  BEST BET IS THAT THE
FRONTAL EFFECTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE GULF BY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE FRONT THAT ENTERING THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE SOME BROKEN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF 83W N OF HONDURAS.  OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NE
OF JAMAICA BETWEEN SE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...MOISTURE ALSO LEFT
BEHIND BY THE DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
CENTERED OVER NW BRAZIL CONTROLS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN
WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED SHOWERS.  THE SW
CARIBBEAN HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE DIFFLUENT WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. S OF 13N W OF
79W HAS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.  RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASING IN HISPANIOLA AND SHOULD INCREASE A
LITTLE IN PUERTO RICO LATE WED/THU AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY GET CLIPPED BY SOME LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE PLENTIFUL
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PATTERN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE E SINCE YESTERDAY BUT
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER
THE REST OF THE ATLC WITH THE WESTERNMOST TROUGHING OCCURRING W
OF 65W WITH DRY MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.  UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT ALONG A COLD FRONT
FROM 32N59W 23N65W STATIONARY INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 28N WITHIN A SIMILAR DISTANCE.  RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NE TO 32N52W CONTROLLING THE W
CENTRAL ATLC.  INCREASING MID/UPPER MOISTURE IS ON THE N SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-68W.
DROPPING BETWEEN 55W-70W EXTENDING FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO THRU
31N58W.  BROAD TROUGHING LIES OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
26W-48W ANCHORED BY A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 33N37W WITH TROUGH
AXIS SW TO 22N40W THEN 6N50W IN THE DEEP TROPICS.  THE FRONTS ON
THE LOW HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A TROUGH FROM 31N29W 24N36W
22N48W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N.  CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
OUT... FINALLY LEAVING THE AREA AROUND THU BUT THEN FOLLOWED IN
ITS FOOTSTEPS BY ANOTHER ONE..ALBEIT WEAKER...BY THE WEEKEND.
RIDGING IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE E ATLC THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
HIGH CENTER NEAR 6N25W RIDGING NNE THRU THE CANARY ISLANDS.
VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DOMINATE NEAR AND E OF THE
RIDGE AXIS TO W AFRICA WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MADEIRA ISLANDS THRU 20N30W WITH A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N56W.  THE
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE LONG-ABSENT AZORES HIGH WILL REBUILD
ITSELF BY NEXT WEEK AS ALL THESE CUT-OFF LOWS LEAVE THE AREA,
POSSIBLY INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLC.

$$
BLAKE


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