[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021703
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 02 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N28W 4N45W 3N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 4N25W 3N36W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 5.5N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
S OF 5N W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IT'S ANOTHER WEEKEND WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE E UNITED STATES PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN UP THE ATLC SEABOARD.
LOW EXTENDS A SHARP TROUGH SWD ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  ATTENDANT
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE EXTENDING SW INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE FRONT BUT A NARROW BAND OF
TSTMS REMAINS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS
SWEEPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT ABOUT 25-30
KT AND SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON.  1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT FROM N MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS
PRODUCING STRONG NLY WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.  THE HIGH WILL
MIGRATE EWD OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS N
FLORIDA MON WITH RETURN MOISTURE FLOW OVER TEXAS BEGINNING.  THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY WED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO JUST E OF BELIZE CITY.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION OVER W CUBA.  OTHERWISE MID/UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 16N/17N UNDERCUT BY A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO 9N70W.  THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SAVE THE NW PART.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES LATE MON INTO TUE FROM W
HISPANIOLA TO N HONDURAS.  MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY MIGHT REACH PUERTO RICO LATE WED/THU.  ELSEWHERE...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS
OVER THE ATLC WITH RIDGE W OF 65W...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-65W...AND SHARP RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NWD OVER THE AZORES.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE E UNITED
STATES HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WATERS CURRENTLY N OF 27N W OF
77W.  ACTUAL FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EWD EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA
TO THE TURKS/CAICOS SUN AFTERNOON.  FRONT IS SLOWLY LOSING ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NWD BUT TSTMS ARE
MOST LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. BY SUN...ONLY
SCATTERED...MAINLY SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN.  OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N38W SW
TO 27N41 WEAKENING TO A TROUGH TO 21N54W.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF FRONT N OF 25N. SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE ALONG FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS
A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 37N47W DROPS SE. MID/UPPER RIDGING
CONTROLS THE E ATLC E OF 40W N OF 20N WITH A HIGH CENTER FORMING
NEAR 7N31W.  ZONAL FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS N OF 10N WITH
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES OR CONVECTION.  ITCZ ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED
TODAY.. PROBABLY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.   1021 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N28W
RIDGING SW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE TRADE WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT...INCREASING FROM N TO S.

$$
BLAKE

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