[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021149 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 02 APR 2005

...CORRECTED FOR DATE...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 4N45W EQ60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 5W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE E UNITED STATES
EXTENDS A SHARP TROUGH SWD ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.  ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA OVER N FLORIDA EXTENDING SWD INTO S MEXICO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
TOWARD W CUBA.  EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...N GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EWD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 86W-91W.  ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD
OF FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E GULF AND FLORIDA TODAY CLEARING THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SWD FROM TEXAS
INTO N MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS PRODUCING STRONG NLY WINDS
TO GALE FORCE.  THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE EWD OVER THE N CENTRAL
GULF SUN NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE
AREA ALONG 16N/17N UNDERCUT BY A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO 9N70W.  THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SAVE THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...N
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE.  WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
WEAKENING...NEW CONVECTION IS OBSERVED DEVELOPING NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MARCHING EWD
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONGEST AND MOST
NUMEROUS OVER W CUBA WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY LATE MON INTO TUE FROM W HISPANIOLA
TO N HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC WITH RIDGE W OF 60W...BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-60W...AND SHARP RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NWD OVER THE AZORES.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE E
UNITED STATES HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WATERS CURRENTLY WITHIN
240 NM OF THE COAST FROM N FLORIDA NWD.  ACTUAL FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN SWEEP QUICKLY EWD
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS/CAICOS SUN AFTERNOON.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS AND
POSSIBLY STRONG ALONG THE FRONT TODAY.  FRONT BEGINS TO LOSE ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NWD. BY
SUNDAY...ONLY SCATTERED...MAINLY SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
ALONG 32N38W SWD TO 22N53W.  ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF FRONT.  SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE ALONG FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS
A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 38N49W DROPS SEWD. MID/UPPER
RIDGING CONTROLS THE E ATLC E OF 40W N OF 20N WITH ZONAL FLOW IN
THE DEEP TROPICS N OF 10N. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING
DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES OR
CONVECTION.  ITCZ ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

$$
RHOME





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