[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 270345
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-270700-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1043 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...JEANNE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO APALACHICOLA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DIXIE AND
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND BEN
HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER AND LOWNDES COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF BOTH THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM
JUST WEST OF APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE COUNTIES AND FOR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 AM EDT FOR DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND BEN HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER AND
LOWNDES COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WATCH WILL MOST
LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH AT 1 AM TO INCLUDE MOST OF
THESE SAME COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA AND 95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE. JEANNE WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JEANNE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS HAVE
OCCURRED...60 MPH AT KEATON BEACH...59 MPH AT CROSS CITY...AND A GUST
TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AT VALDOSTA. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND
COUNTIES OF DIXIE...LAFAYETTE...TAYLOR AND MADISON AND WELL AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE VALDOSTA REGION.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...
DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THEREFORE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST FROM JUST WEST OF APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN AND THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER.
THEREFORE...THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
CAN EXPECT LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
WESTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN ONE
INCH. AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE AT LEAST 5 INCHES OF RAIN CAN EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
MAJOR FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE
OBSERVED...FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN
LATER. THE AUCILLA RIVER ALREADY IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER...
AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR VALDOSTA RESPONDS VERY QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...SO THESE TWO RIVERS WILL BE THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. INTERESTS ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
JEANNE IS CURRENTLY INLAND AND PULLING FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH...
HOWEVER...A MINOR STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE
COUNTY COASTLINES. AT THIS TIME THE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER
THAN 1 TO 3 FEET BECAUSE THE DURATION AND FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL
BE QUITE SHORT. RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 211 AM AND 219 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE AT 214 AM AND 205 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 203 AM AND 154 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE AT 958 AM AND 1047 PM.
HIGH TIDE AT 428 AM AND 350 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
LOW TIDE AT 619 PM MONDAY AND 454 AM TUESDAY.
HIGH TIDE AT 1032 AM MONDAY AND 1159 PM MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW WOULD
CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (OR NORTHEASTERN SECTION) OF THE
STORM. WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA NOW FALL UNDER THAT
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM
EDT. THIS WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH
AT 1 AM TO INCLUDE MOST OF THESE SAME COUNTIES. A MINIMAL THREAT
EXISTS FURTHER TO THE WEST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 3 AM EDT MONDAY.

$$

22-BARRY


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