[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 251026
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-251430-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
621 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES...
...A DIRECT STRIKE ON SOUTH FLORIDA IS LIKELY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE...GLADES...
HENDRY...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE METRO AREAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN
PALM BEACH...AND WESTERN BROWARD COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND COLLIER AND
WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

HURRICANE OR INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS MEAN THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM OR INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNINGS MEAN THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 240
MILES EAST OF PALM BEACH OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MIAMI. JEANNE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MILES AN
HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE ENACTED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS
IN ZONE A AND B INCLUDING ALL MOBILE HOMES.  SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AROUND 730
AM.

BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ANTICIPATE A MANDATORY EVACUATION
OF ZONE A AND ALL MOBILE HOMES AS WELL AS SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS. SHELTERS WILL
BE OPEN LATER TODAY.

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ANTICIPATE ORDERING AN
EVACUATION FOR ZONE A AND ALL MOBILE HOMES AT 7 AM AT WHICH TIME SHELTERS WILL
BE OPENING.

GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES WILL BE ANNOUNCING EVACUATION ORDERS AND
OPENING OF SHELTERS THIS MORNING. AT THE VERY LEAST EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE URGENTLY RECOMMENDED IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.

ALL PEOPLE SHOULD BE ENACTING THEIR HURRICANE PLAN...INCLUDING INSTALLATION OF
SHUTTERS AND PREPARATIONS FOR EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. EVACUATIONS...IF
ORDERED...SHOULD PROCEED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING. A DIRECT STRIKE ON SOME
PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS LIKELY.


...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JEANNE WOULD RESULT IN LANDFALL NORTH
OF PALM BEACH COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE AROUND 6 PM WHICH MEANS THE WATER
LEVEL WILL REACH HIGH TIDE AND THEN CONTINUE TO RISE TO A MAXIMUM THROUGH 9 OR
10 PM BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RECEDE SLOWLY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE AROUND 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY INCLUDING JUPITER INLET WITH STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
EXPECTED ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE WORTH FROM
BOCA RATON NORTH. FLOODING OF BEACH ROADS AND WATERFRONT NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND
JUPITER INLET COLONY...TEQUESTA...AND JUNO BEACH CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SHOULD HURRICANE JEANNE MAKE A LANDFALL FARTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS EVEN IN PALM
BEACH COUNTY...STORM TIDES AS HIGH AS 7 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF WHERE THE EYE OF JEANNE CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES ALL ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH
LESSER EFFECTS INTO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL THURSDAY WAS 15.8 FEET. ASSUMING THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF JEANNE WILL PUSH THE WATER TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST ENDS OF THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM SOUTH BAY TO BELLE GLADE AND PAHOKEE...REACHING A
PEAK AROUND 21 FEET AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PEAK OF THE WATER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE AROUND PORT MAYACA BY 3 AM SUNDAY AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST...PEAKING AROUND 21 TO 22 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. BY DAWN SUNDAY...THE
PEAK WILL BE IN THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE FROM PORT MAYACA TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE...REACHING A PEAK AROUND 21 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 7 AM.
ALL AREAS OUTSIDE PROTECTION OF THE HOOVER DIKE...INCLUDING RITTA...TORRY...
AND KREAMER ISLANDS AS WELL AS MARINAS AND DOCKS IN THE BELLE GLADE AND PAHOKEE
AREAS...CAN BE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. THE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO
MORE THAN 30 FEET.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST...ONSHORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
LASTING UP UNTIL THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON. THIS COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS BETWEEN MARCO ISLAND AND
CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN SQUALLS...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH...ARE NOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THESE SQUALLS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVY RAIN. THE FIRST SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...IN EXCESS OF 39
MPH...WILL AFFECT THE METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND METRO MIAMI-DADE BY MID AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES WILL LIKELY
RESULT BY EVENING. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH...
WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVER METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND LAST UNTIL
SUNRISE SUNDAY. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM BOCA
RATON NORTHWARD. OVER METRO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LAST MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE ESPECIALLY IN BROWARD COUNTY. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

OVER INLAND AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...GLADES...AND HENDRY COUNTIES...WINDS
WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 MILES PER HOUR...BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LASTING FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL
OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY...FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CENTER OF JEANNE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY.

OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING BIG CYPRESS SWAMP...
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND THE NAPLES AREA...FREQUENT WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...WILL BEGIN SATURDAY EVENING AND LAST
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

EXTENSIVE...POSSIBLY LONG LASTING...POWER OUTAGES CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. BE SURE TO
HAVE FLASHLIGHTS AND FRESH BATTERIES AND A BATTERY POWERED RADIO OR TELEVISION
AVAILABLE.

TREE DAMAGE WILL BE SEVERE AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES AND
MOTOR VEHICLES PARKED OUTSIDE. ROADS WILL LIKELY BE BLOCKED AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY. AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY CLOSE
THIS MORNING WITH FLIGHTS CANCELLED.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS REACHING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE BY NOON AND HURRICANE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. EXTREME SEAS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE HURRICANE. ALL MARINE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION
OR RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING. REMEMBER TO ALLOW EXTRA LINE FOR
STORM SURGE WHEN SECURING BOATS IN HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MANY BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN SO MOVEMENT OF MARINE CRAFT WILL
LIKELY BE IMPOSSIBLE TODAY.

HIGH WAVES...BREAKING ON THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WILL CAUSE
MODERATE BEACH EROSION AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS INCLUDING DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS. SURFERS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM ENTERING THE WATER AT ANY TIME.

ONCE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED...DO NOT REMAIN ON YOUR CRAFT DURING
THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT WAVE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND WEST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 10
FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY AND STAY IN
PORT SUNDAY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
JEANNE HAS A VERY LARGE ENHANCED RAINFALL SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE PICTURES.
THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF EXTREME RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS INCREASED.
SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE METRO ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND DURATION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...GLADES...AND
HENDRY COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE PASSES. THIS
RAIN WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FRESHWATER FLOODING AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF JEANNE
BEGINNING THIS MORNING...BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 9 AM TODAY.

$$

PFOST

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