[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 251023
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
251615-

HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...
...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM MARTIN TO VOLUSIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES...INCLUDING LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA...
AND OKEECHOBEE. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES IN
ANTICIPATION OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST
OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL MOVE
NEAR OR THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND THEN TAKE
DIRECT AIM ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A FLORIDA LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT BETWEEN
PALM BEACH AND COCOA BEACH. DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND
THE SIZE OF JEANNE...ALL COUNTIES WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING SHOULD
MAKE PREPARATIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MAKE A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY WITH JEANNE LIKELY TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE FLORIDA LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ANY AND ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR A
LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TAKING FULL
ADVANTAGE OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS TODAY. IMPORTANTLY...PREPAREDNESS
ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IN YOUR AREA.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR DRIVING TODAY...BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL
OF PASSING SQUALLS. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF JEANNE WERE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY APPROACH COASTAL SECTIONS AND THEN
INLAND SECTIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THESE BANDS WILL CONTAIN THE
FIRST GUSTY WINDS OF JEANNE. MOTORISTS DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. THOSE PERFORMING OTHER WIND SENSITIVE
TASKS...SUCH AS BOARDING UP WINDOWS OR SECURING PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED
ROOFS...SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WHILE WORKING.

STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER THREATS...
AND PLEASE BE DILIGENT TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLAN OF
ACTION. DO NOT BE COMPLACENT. OBJECTIVELY CONSIDER YOUR VULNERABILITY
TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...DEADLY STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAIN.
TAKE ALL REASONABLE AND NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. BE A GOOD NEIGHBOR AND HELP OTHERS IN NEED WHEN POSSIBLE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NOW THAT JEANNE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...THE WIND THREAT FOR
JEANNE WILL ARRIVE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH A
MAJOR HURRICANE...THE WIND THREAT IS EXTREME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. JEANNE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST. PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE WELL
UNDER WAY...WITH DILIGENCE TOWARD COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...AND
THEN SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...AND ORLANDO..SANFORD...AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES BY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
COAST OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES IN THE EVENING SATURDAY...
ALSO SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE
INTERIOR.

DAMAGE FROM RECENT HURRICANES CHARLEY AND FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
COMPOUND THE WIND EFFECTS FROM JEANNE. HOMES...TREES...AND POWER
GRIDS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO DAMAGE IN THEIR WEAKENED STATE. POWER
OUTAGES MAY BE LONGER IN MANY AREAS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPERIENCED. DEBRIS THAT HAS YET TO BE REMOVED HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...A HOME
WITH SIGNIFICANT PREVIOUS DAMAGE...OR IN A PLACE THAT OFFERS LITTLE
PROTECTION FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STRONGLY CONSIDER MOVING TO A
SAFE SHELTER. IF HEADING TO A SHELTER...DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST
MINUTE. HEED ALL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS...TAKING APPROPRIATE
INSTRUCTION FROM YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS.

WITH 100 MPH WINDS OF CATEGORY TWO FORCE...WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFING
MATERIAL...UNPROTECTED DOORS...AND UNSHUTTERED WINDOWS IS COMMON.
SCATTERED LARGE TREES WILL FALL...WITH LARGE DEBRIS BLOCKING ROADWAYS
AND KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES. LARGE SIGNS WILL BE EASILY BENT
OR BLOWN DOWN. ALSO...SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. IF JEANNE
ATTAINS CATEGORY THREE FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 110 MPH...THE DAMAGE
WILL BECOME EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE WITH STRUCTURAL FAILURES OF GREATER
LIKELIHOOD...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY AND TO THE IMMEDIATE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE SURGE WATERS OF 4 TO 6 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WITHIN NARROWING INLETS...LOCALIZED SURGE
WATERS NEAR 8 FEET MAY OCCUR.

THE STORM SURGE THREAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE HIGH SINCE EFFECTS
WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE DUNES ARE IN A HIGHLY
WEAKENED STATE. MANY BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES HAVE ALREADY SUFFERED
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND EROSION...MAKING THEM VERY VULNERABLE TO
FURTHER DAMAGE. INUNDATION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE BY SEA WATER
IS POSSIBLE WITH SURGE AND WAVES BREACHING THE WEAKENED DUNES. NEAR
SHORE ROADWAYS AND STRUCTURES ARE AT RISK. PROPERTIES AROUND INLETS
AND ADJACENT CANALS WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO INUNDATION AS WATER
BACKS UP.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL IS CURRENTLY 15.8 FEET. WINDS
WITH JEANNE WILL FIRST PUSH LAKE WATER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SIDES...RAISING WATER LEVELS THERE TO AS HIGH AS 21 FEET. THEN WATER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDES TO AS HIGH
AS 24 FEET.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS EXTREME. AS A RESULT...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.
THE WATER TABLE IS ALREADY HIGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO
COPIOUS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER...INCLUDING HURRICANES CHARLEY
AND FRANCES. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVE STANDING WATER...AND IN SOME
CASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER...PROPERTIES ARE
ALREADY UNDER WATER.

BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE CENTER OF JEANNE. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE PRE-EXISTING FLOODING
CONDITIONS...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS HIGHLY LIKELY IN MANY AREAS.
BLOCKAGE OF STORM DRAINS...STREAMS...CANALS AND OTHER NATURAL AND
MAN MADE RETENTION AREAS MAY ALSO AGGRAVATE THE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT AS THESE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN FLOOD CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL
RISES...WITH MAJOR FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. IF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED OVER THE SAINT JOHNS BASIN
IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...AN INITIAL RISE IN THE WATER LEVEL NEAR
DELAND...ABOVE LAKE HARNEY...AND NEAR SANFORD...WILL OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. THEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...RIVER LEVELS WILL RESPOND TO THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS MODERATE. AS WITH ANY
HURRICANE...THERE ALWAYS EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TYPICALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
RAINBANDS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. THEREFORE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL ALTER THE TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE
TORNADO THREAT. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ALSO...INNER RAINBAND AND EYEWALL TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO ADD TO THE WIND DAMAGE IN VICINITY OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AS THE MARINE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH JEANNE WILL BE EXTREME. HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS ALREADY
BUFFETING THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL ONLY GET WORSE AS JEANNE
APPROACHES. JEANNE IS FORECAST BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. SEAS MAY GROW TO OVER 20 FEET LATER
TODAY WITH INTRACOASTAL WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. WINDS MAY REACH
AS HIGH AS 100 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS...AS JEANNE
APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN COCOA BEACH BEACH AND JUPITER INLET.

PERSONS WHO MAY BE SECURING BOATS OR DOCKS ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS AS IF A CATEGORY THREE LANDFALLING
HURRICANE WAS APPROACHING THEIR AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON
TODAY...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

DWS
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