[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 162042
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...T2.0 FROM SAB AND T2.5 FROM TAFB...ALONG
WITH SHIP REPORTS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...SUPPORT
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD BANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND A STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  STEERING FOR THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS THAT
SHOULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD.  THE BAMS...GFS... AND GFDL
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 11.4N  32.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.8N  34.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 12.1N  36.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N  38.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N  40.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 14.0N  42.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N  44.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N  45.0W    95 KT


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