[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Sep 16 15:42:39 CDT 2004


WTNT71 KNHC 162042
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 16 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST SUN SEP 19 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.4N  72.3W      45  X  X  X 45   MYNN 251N 775W     X  1 11  8 20
21.4N  73.9W      20 13  X  1 34   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  3 13 16
22.5N  75.0W       2 24  2  1 29   MARATHON FL        X  X  X  9  9
MDSD 185N 697W    99  X  X  X 99   MIAMI FL           X  X  1 11 12
MDCB 176N 714W     4  X  1  X  5   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  1 12 13
MTPP 186N 724W    23  X  1  X 24   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X 12 12
MTCA 183N 738W     9  3  1  1 14   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X 10 10
MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  1  2  3   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  8  8
MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  1  2  3   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  5  5
MUGM 200N 751W     7 12  1  1 21   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3
MUCM 214N 779W     X  2  7  5 14   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  1  5  6   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  X  2  2   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  6  6
MDPP 198N 707W    72  X  X  X 72   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  8  8
MBJT 215N 712W    34  X  X  X 34   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  7  7
MYMM 224N 730W    18 13  X  X 31   VENICE FL          X  X  X  6  6
MYSM 241N 745W     X 17  6  2 25   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  6  6
MYEG 235N 758W     X 14  9  2 25   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  4  4
MYAK 241N 776W     X  2 12  6 20   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
C FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
D FROM  2PM SAT TO  2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
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