[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WWCA31 TJSJ 140644 CCA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-141030-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004

...CORRECTED AND UPDATED...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN PASSING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND FOR ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED OR
NEAR COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH 24 HOURS OR LESS.

...STORM UPDATE...
AT 200 AM AST...THE VERY BROAD TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR NEAR THE
NORTHWEST TIP OF GUADELOUPE. THIS IS ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST
CROIX...250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT PASSES VERY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH..CAN BE EXPECTED IN
OCCASIONAL SQUALLS AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BASED ON THE
OFFICIAL TRACK...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS FORECAST TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES ST CROIX WHICH WOULD PLACE
THE ISLAND IN THE NORTHEAST AND STRONGEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM
AROUND SUNSET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE
LIKELY ACROSS ST CROIX. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND
OUT TO ST THOMAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...BUT WILL BE STRONGEST IN
GUSTS AND SQUALLS AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS VIEQUES THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO. BASED
ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS FORECAST TO
HAVE ALREADY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES JUST
SOUTH OF VIEQUES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL
STORM WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE LIKELY ACROSS VIEQUES AND THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND OUT TO
COVER MOST OF THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WILL BE STRONGEST
IN GUSTS AND SQUALLS AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SURF AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...EAST CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL
STORM PASSES. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SAN JUAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES. LOCAL
SEAS WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO
INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND ONSHORE EAST SWELLS BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ELEVEN SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVER MOST
OF PUERTO RICO ON THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BOTH THE AREA COVERAGE
AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. ON ITS CURRENT
FORECAST PATH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL PASS NEAR ST CROIX
THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS PROBABLE. THE
THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AND OR RIVER
FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THE DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS ST CROIX THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF GUTS AND STREAMS. MUDSLIDES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS STEEP TERRAINS.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO LIFE AS RIVERS...CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN MUDSLIDES ACROSS STEEP TERRAINS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ELEVEN CAN BE
FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 630 AM AST
BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO.

TIRADO












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