[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT42 KNHC 010831
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GASTON IS
MOSTLY EXTRATROPICAL. THERE IS A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE CLOUD
SHIELD INDICATING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS CONVERGING WITH AN UPPER
JET. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND BUOY
WRYG RECENTLY REPORTED 45 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.  WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES MODEST EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF
GASTON AT 45 KT IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

GASTON IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
065/30.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON GASTON BEING
CARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GASTON.

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0900Z 42.4N  61.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 44.3N  55.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 48.0N  44.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 50.9N  34.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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