[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111829
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON 11 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE CENTER NEAR 36.0N 61.3W AT
11/1500 UTC MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
988 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NICOLE IS STILL
GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...STILL
INDICATE SUBTROPICAL STATUS.  A REPORT FROM THE SHIP KSDF...
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB. THE
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND
THEREFORE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL VERY SOON.  NICOLE MAY
BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR MERGE WITH...A BAROCLINIC CYCLONE
DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT NICOLE COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE 17N33W 10N36W MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL SHOWS UP WELL IN
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
SURROUNDS THIS WAVE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

TROPICAL WAVE 61W/62W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
A LITTLE BIT OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD
NEAR 15.5N 62.5W IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MARTINIQUE NEAR 15N61W TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N17W 12N33W 9N50W 11N65W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 9N73W 9N82W 10N86W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 7.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W IN COLOMBIA...AND IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W
AND 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING IN COASTAL AFRICA...FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 7W AND 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS
FROM MEXICO TO FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
FROM A BROAD RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM MEXICO...JUST EAST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS SEEN SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 77W.
1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANT OF T.D. MATTHEW...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW CENTER
TO A TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WARM FRONT FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N83W. COLD FRONT
FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 28N87W 26N87W 22N91W 18N91W...JUST
WEST OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 66W...ABOUT HALF OF
IT TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THE
OTHER HALF OF IT TURNS CYCLONICALLY TOWARD A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE...
ROUGHLY NORTH OF 30N WEST OF 60W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...NOW THROUGH 32N70W 30N77W
31N84W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W AND THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
27N59W...TO 21N62W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W...TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TO THE
GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER...TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 86.5W
AND 88.5W IN SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W...AND NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM 24N TO 32N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W MOVING EAST.

THE REST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 50W IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE 27N59W
21N62W 17N67W TROUGH AND A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 34N33W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW RUNS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 24W AND 45W. SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH 30N28W TO 27N34W TO 28N41W.

THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 34N33W CENTER.

$$
MT


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