[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 111430
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004

NICOLE IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...STILL
INDICATE SUBTROPICAL STATUS.  A REPORT FROM THE SHIP KSDF...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 45 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB.  THE SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEREFORE WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL VERY SOON.  NICOLE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR MERGE
WITH...A BAROCLINIC CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NICOLE COULD MAINTAIN
ITS IDENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A FEW DAYS.  SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.

LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION.  HOWEVER MOST TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE LEFT FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
10Z.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/1500Z 36.0N  61.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 39.4N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 41.0N  63.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 42.0N  63.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 48.0N  59.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

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