[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 10 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.8N 65.5W...OR ABOUT
60 MILES WNW OF BERMUDA...AT 11/0000 UTC MOVING NE 12 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC OR
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NICOLE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPROACHING BERMUDA
FROM THE W. SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED E OF
BERMUDA BUT NOW ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE
ISLAND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 60W-63W MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
E.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 520 NM SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED AND IS BOUNDED TO THE N BY A NARROW
SWATH OF DRY SAHARAN AIR. A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN
INTERMITTENTLY BURSTING TO THE E OF THE AXIS...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOW FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 58W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT VERY
WELL-DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO THE BROAD TROF OF LOW PRES LEFT
BEHIND BY SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE. THE WAVE IS ALSO AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED MOSTLY E OF
THE ISLANDS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 52W-62W WITH SOME SHOWERS
EXTENDING ACROSS BARBADOS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N10W 6N24W 10N37W 9N45W 13N54W...THEN ALONG
10N61W 7N71W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 10W-13W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-26W AND
37W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS BECOMING AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES
SYSTEM WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COAST AND A COLD FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF ALONG
29N89W 27N88W 22N92W. DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
FILTERED ACROSS THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE STORMY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE VALUES ARE
RUNNING HIGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 83W-89W WITH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A LARGE AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN PANAMA
CITY AND TALLAHASSEE. A MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER N/CNTRL
TEXAS AND A SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING ACROSS N MEXICO INTO THE NW
GULF ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR OCCLUDING MATTHEW AND USHERING IN THE
DRIER AIR. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE E
ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTS INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND E
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUMP DRY AIR FROM THE W ATLC SWD
WELL INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN...CROSSING COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA
INTO THE PACIFIC. A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CNTRL
CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FORMING OVER THE ISLANDS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED E AND NE.
A BROAD TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE
TROF AND EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA NEWD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE CNTRL ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE E.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE W ATLC FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW MOVING TO THE E AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROF S
OF BERMUDA NEAR 25N65W AND THIS WHOLE COMPLEX TROF IS PUMPING
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE NWD INTO THE CNTRL ATLC. COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF SFC SPEED CONVERGENCE...THIS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL TO THE SE OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 50W-61W. FARTHER
E...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N30W
28N39W 31N49W WITH A 1004 MB GALE CENTER SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 150
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 38W. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
PUSHING THIS FRONT SWD WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD CORE LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE SFC LOW. WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS E OF THE TROF
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
INTO NW AFRICA.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 16N52W AND CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE BROAD MOISTURE PLUME
THAT EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC.
THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO
PRODUCE SOME TSTMS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THE HIGH IS
BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 50W...WHICH FEEDS
INTO A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N32W.

$$
BERG


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