[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 101115
SPFAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

...CORRECTION TO AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS...END IN 5 INSTEAD OF 1...

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT WED OCT 13 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

36.0N  65.0W      23  1  X  1 25   EASTPORT ME        X  1  6  5 12
39.0N  63.5W       1 13  3  1 18   ST JOHN NB         X  X  5  7 12
41.5N  63.5W       X  5  8  3 16   MONCTON NB         X  X  3  7 10
BERMUDA           40  X  X  X 40   YARMOUTH NS        X  2  7  5 14
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  1  1  2   HALIFAX NS         X  X  5  7 12
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  2  2  2  6   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  3  6  9
PROVIDENCE RI      X  2  3  2  7   SYDNEY NS          X  X  1  5  6
NANTUCKET MA       X  4  4  2 10   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  2  6  8
HYANNIS MA         X  3  4  3 10   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  3  3
BOSTON MA          X  2  3  3  8   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  2  2
PORTLAND ME        X  1  5  4 10   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X  2  2
BAR HARBOR ME      X  1  6  5 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
C FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
D FROM  2AM TUE TO  2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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