[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 101114
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

...CORRECTION TO AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS...END IN 5 INSTEAD OF 1...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
AND IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS BASED ON
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER AS SHOWN ON A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ALSO ON THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL COLD LOW OVER THE SURFACE SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT.  THE
DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NICOLE COULD TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR A
DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE STORM MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/13,  THE FORECAST TRACK IS MOSTLY
NORTHWARD FOR 72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES FROM
NORTH AMERICA TO THE ATLANTIC AND CUTS OFF.  THE GFS SHOWS NICOLE
MERGING WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT
48 HOURS.  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0900Z 31.8N  66.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 33.5N  66.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 36.0N  65.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  63.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 41.5N  63.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 43.5N  63.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 49.0N  59.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/0600Z 52.0N  50.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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