[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 010232
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

OTTO IS MAINTAINING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A MOSTLY-EXPOSED CIRCULATION. RECENT QUIKSCAT
DATA AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
AND THE WIND STRUCTURE IS BECOMING MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A
UNANIMOUS 35 KT BUT I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR
THE TIME BEING. OTTO REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
REACH THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...OTTO DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTTO IS
LIKELY TO LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW WELL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OTTO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/2.  WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC APPROACHING OTTO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO NUDGE OTTO ON AN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0300Z 31.6N  50.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 31.4N  50.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 31.0N  49.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  49.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 29.5N  48.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N  46.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/0000Z 27.5N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net