[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 30 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO... THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE
SEASON...FORMED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE GALE CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC.  OTTO IS NEAR 31.8N 51.0W AT 30/2100 UTC MOVING N
4 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT
AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 997 MB.  SEE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.  CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CENTER WITH
BANDING BECOMING MORE PROMINENT...SIGNS OF A TROPICAL TRANSITION
FROM A SUB OR NON-TROPICAL LOW.  OTTO IS ON THE N SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER LOW... WHICH WOULD GENERALLY BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
STRENGTHENING EXCEPT THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SO COOL...
NEAR 23C.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION
LIKELY AS MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASE NEAR THE SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N30W 9N52W 9N61W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N-11.5N BETWEEN 40W-47W AND FROM 2N-5.5N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.  NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS RIDGES NORTHWARD INTO THE
SE UNITED STATES ALONG ABOUT 80W WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
PRESENT.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS HIGH CONTROLS THE AREA W
OF 70W WITH DECREASING MOISTURE FROM N TO S INTO THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN.  IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS
PENETRATING THE AREA FROM SE LOUISIANA INTO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
STATIONARY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO JUST S OF NEW MEXICO.
BAND OF HEAVY TSTMS IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH
LIGHTER RAINS UP TO 300 NM BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH GENERALLY
OVERCAST SKIES.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF JUST A BIT...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD THRU
NE FLORIDA.  HOWEVER LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS WILL BE MADE WITH
THE FRONT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH S FLORIDA BY LATE WEEK.

CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO EXTENDS FROM NEAR
32N50W SW THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR ARUBA IN THE ABC
ISLAND CHAIN.  MOST OF THE WEATHER IS RATHER DRY DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME CONVERGENCE LINES...
ESPECIALLY JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DISSIPATING FRONT IS APPROACHING THE GREATER
ANTILLES WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS DENOTING THE FRONTAL ZONE
FROM NEAR 20N70W NE TO 23N63W THEN BECOMING VERY WEAK NNW TO
JUST W OF BERMUDA.  THIS CLOUD BAND WILL PASS THRU PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN TO THAT
ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
CHAIN ESPECIALLY NW OF BARBUDA.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH SAVE A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH THRU NW SAHARA
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 24N E OF 24W.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTHWARD ALONG ABOUT 40W WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK
REMNANT TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 44W-49W.  OTHER ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA BETWEEN 12N-16N BETWEEN 40W
TO NEAR BARBADOS.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
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