[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed Nov 10 05:26:30 CST 2004

AXNT20 KNHC 101126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 10 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH COLOMBIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW AND A REMNANT FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ATLC.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTERS ALONG THE TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  LATEST SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE VALUES
OVER 11 INCHES PER DAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N10W 5N26W 10N38W 7N50W 10N60W 13N71W
9N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 5W-13W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
16W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 62W-64W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 67W-73W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GLFMEX IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTING
TO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 65W-80W USHERING IN A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CONTINENTAL AIR OVER
FLORIDA.  WHILE THE FRONT LACKS APPRECIABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH S
FLORIDA TOWARDS CUBA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
E GLFMEX TOMORROW SUPPORTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS MID-LATITUDE
DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. AT THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL...SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA
SWD OVER E CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS.  THE TROUGH
IS FLANKED ON THE EAST SIDE BY A 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEWD OVER EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO PUERTO RICO.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. A 1008 MB
LOW IS NOW FOUND S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N71W.  THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR WEST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN... CUBA...JAMAICA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
NICARAGUA NWD.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NEWD TO BEYOND 32N50W...AND A LARGE DEEP
LAYERED LOW OVER THE E ATLC ABOUT 600 NM W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.  THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF THE W
ATLC TROUGH AS A 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET TAPS INTO DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS/LIFT EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A REMNANT FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO NWD TO BEYOND 30N58W.  A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
IS USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE W
ATLC WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N60W SW OVER CUBA.  THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM
N OF THE BOUNDARY. OVER THE E ATLC...SUBTROPICAL JET AND
MOISTURE RIDES UP AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE LEAVING THE
AREA E OF 50W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR.  STRONG SLY FLOW FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEWD INTO W
AFRICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED NEAR THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH SWD INTO
THE TROPICAL WATERS ALONG 15N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR
SURINAME.  ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PENETRATES THE AREA
BETWEEN 40W55W LIMITING ITCZ CONVECTION.  FURTHER E...BROAD
SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ASSISTING ITCZ ACTIVITY E OF 25W.

$$
FORMOSA

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