[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 10 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ATLC.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTERS...NONE OF WHICH
ARE WELL DEFINED.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER
SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATEST SATELLITE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE VALUES OVER 10 INCHES/250 MM PER 24
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS BEING MASKED BY A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N10W 5N27W 10N37W 7N50W 10N60W 14N70W
10N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 14W-26W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
14W-26W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 61W-66W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 74W-77W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GLFMEX IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC.  CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE GLFMEX.  A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING INTO
THE W ATLC TROUGH IS USHERING IN A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF CONTINENTAL AIR OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  WHILE THE FRONT LACKS APPRECIABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH S
FLORIDA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE INTO THE E GLFMEX TOMORROW SUPPORTING
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS MID-LATITUDE
DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. AT THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL...SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA
SWD OVER E CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS.  THE TROUGH
IS FLANKED ON THE EAST SIDE BY A 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEWD OVER HISPANIOLA. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. A 1008 MB
LOW IS NOW FOUND S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W.  THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR WEST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN... CUBA...JAMAICA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
NICARAGUA NWD.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NEWD TO BEYOND 32N50W...AND A LARGE DEEP
LAYERED LOW OVER THE E ATLC ABOUT 700 NM W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.  THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF THE W
ATLC TROUGH AS A 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET TAPS INTO DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS/LIFT EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO NWD TO BEYOND 32N55W.  A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
IS USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE W
ATLC WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N62W SW OVER S FLORIDA.  THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM
N OF THE BOUNDARY. OVER THE E ATLC...SUBTROPICAL JET AND
MOISTURE RIDES UP AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE LEAVING THE
AREA E OF 50W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR.  STRONG SLY FLOW FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEWD INTO W
AFRICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED NEAR THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH SWD INTO
THE TROPICAL WATERS ALONG 15N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR
SURINAME.  ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PENETRATES THE AREA
BETWEEN 40W55W LIMITING ITCZ CONVECTION.  FURTHER E...BROAD
SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ASSISTING ITCZ ACTIVITY E OF 25W.

$$
FORMOSA


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