[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 01 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N30W 5N40W 6N58W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
9W-18W INCLUDING OVER S GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-40W.
ALTHOUGH NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS OFFSHORE GHANA AND IVORY COAST
FROM 1N-5N W OF 7W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
HIGH PRES HAS RE-BUILT E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF 2005 HAS NOT RELAXED THE BRISK 20-25 KT EASTERLY
WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC WATERS WWD ACROSS
FLORIDA. THE SFC RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS CNTRL GEORGIA TO E
TEXAS AND ESE/SE FLOW AROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE IS BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE INLAND BETWEEN MISSISSIPPI AND TEXAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE NOW TILTS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND
THE N BAHAMAS TO 32N70W WHICH IS ALLOWING WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA IS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR BILOXI...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO RACE WWD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO HAMPER MARINE ACTIVITIES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING 20-25 KT
NE/E WINDS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE CNTRL AMERICAN COAST. AN
UPPER TROF IS POSITIONED FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS TO NE HONDURAS AND
FLOW CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 77W-84W AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG A WEAK TROF. A SECOND TROF ALSO EXTENDS
FROM THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER NEWD TO 13N58W AND THIS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 57W-64W.

CENTRAL ATLC...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW NEAR
32N45W SWD TO 28N46W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 24N55W...THEN AS A
FRONTAL TROF TO 20N55W ACROSS GUADELOUPE TO 15N64W. A FLATTENED
UPPER TROF IS LOCATED W OF THE SFC FEATURES ALONG 32N56W 20N74W
AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 46W-52W...AS WELL AS N OF THE AREA NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LOW. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD AND FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE
IS ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG 40W WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR
CENTERED PRIMARILY OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N.

EAST ATLC...
THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF
LOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 26N27W. TO THE S...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDS E OF 40W INTO AFRICA ALTHOUGH A TROF IS LOCATED ALONG
EQ30W 8N35W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
30W-40W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A LOW/MID LEVEL
TROF IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD FIELD ROTATING TO THE WEST BUT THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
BERG


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