[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 31 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 7N20W 4N30W 5N40W 6N50W 9N58W...AND FROM THE COLOMBIA
COAST NEAR 6N77W TO 6N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 4N30W 5N40W 6N45W. THE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO
12N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W ARE RELATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
13N56W 10N58W 6N60W 3N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA...ALONG A LINE THROUGH
31N79W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 92W...AND
ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W...EVERYTHING
IS MOVING EASTWARD. ONE SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER SURFACE
RIDGE RUNS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N83W 17N85W INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 14N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W INCLUDING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO RUNS FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N57W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE AREA OF AN ALREADY DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 32N57W TO 26N61W TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 19N84W AND POSSIBLY TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN 250 TO
350 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
TROUGH MOVED INTO ITS CURRENT POSITION...PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF IT
TO THE EAST THE ORIGINAL TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE
NOW-DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM AN 1017 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N45W TO 27N46W TO A SECOND 1017 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N54W...TO 20N59W TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE 24N54W
LOW CENTER TO 20N54W AND 16N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 28N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF 32N44W. BROAD SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO
THE WEST OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH HAD BEEN IN THE TROPICAL/
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N47W ON 27/1745 UTC HAS BEEN
PUSHED EASTWARD AND NOW IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 25N26W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS 25N26W CENTER RUNS FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR 15N BEYOND
32N BETWEEN SOUTHERN MOROCCO AND 38W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 20W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC IN THE TROPICS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA STAYS SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W AND 65W...MERGING EVENTUALLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE 25N26W CYCLONIC CENTER. SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE RIDGE
THROUGH 32N35W 26N40W 18N47W 9N50W.

$$
MT


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