[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 23 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 6N20W 6N30W 7N38W 5N45W 2N51W...AND FROM THE
COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 6N77W TO 6N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 8N
BETWEEN 22W AND 33W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N83W 24N86W
TO THE GULF WATERS JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21.5N90W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18.5N93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF 26N80W 24N84W 22N87W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
EVERYWHERE. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUPPORTS THIS SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH BROKE AWAY
FROM THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GOES
FROM 18N96W IN INTERIOR MEXICO TO 25N100W 28N106W 32N110W.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA TO 29N70W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26.5N78W... TO WESTERN CUBA
NEAR 22.5N82W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE
OPEN GULF WATERS. THE 23/1800 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 70 KT TO 100 KT WEST OF
90W...AND SPEEDS FROM 80 KT TO 100 KT NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
IN MASSES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 63W AND
77W. MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...CONTINUING AS MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL...SOME UPPER LEVEL...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE FLOW EXITS THE AREA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 16N/17N WEST OF
77W/78W...BRINGING MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO CENTRAL
AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N61W TO 23N57W TO 17N52W.
NO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ANY
MORE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS FROM
28N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...IN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH...FROM 22N TO
31N WEST OF 67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...
MORE LIKELY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 29N40W TO 15N36W. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 11N TO 23N BETWEEN 20W AND 31W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N28W 24N28W 26N30W 28N32W
28N35W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

$$
MT


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