[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 23 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 6N20W 5N30W 6N40W 2N50W 2N60W
5N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
16W-20W...AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N84W 24N87W 18N94W AT 1500 UTC MOVING E AT 20
KT.  A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA FROM 30N82W TO
24N84W ALSO MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE.   THICK LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO W OF THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOW THE FRONT ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST AND EARLIER SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE
DISSIPATED.  THE GFS MODEL HAS THE THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S FLORIDA TOMORROW MORNING AND LATER
PROGRESSING INTO THE ATLANTIC.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 120-150 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N
GULF.

WEST ATLANTIC...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST N OF 27N AND W OF 77W DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE.  OTHERWISE...SURFACE SE FLOW TO 25 KT PERSISTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 40N THRU THE ATLC WATERS KEEPS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTER-THAN-AVERAGE IN THE AREA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO BERMUDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES WITH ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUING.  SMALL STATIONARY ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA.  ON THE SURFACE...TRADEWINDS SHOWERS ARE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  SHOWERS ARE
ALSO NOTED INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS
MOVING W.  NO SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK.

CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC...
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N32W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
31W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 17N35W.  A
BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS 360 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE
UKMET AND GFS MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS SLOWLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED ALTHOUGH COOL WATERS TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N40W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 29N11W.

$$
FORMOSA


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