[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 13 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N07W 6N30W 6N40W 8N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERARED/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN
07W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
20W-35W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39N43W.  ISOLATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 44W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR SYLVAN SHORES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
IT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS
UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TO AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE GULF LATER   TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO WESTERN
HONDURAS.  A NARROW BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.  ELSEWHERE.. MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR.  POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING WILDLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES
SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS PRESENT OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT EXTEND FROM
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TO NEAR 30N64W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
EASTERN CUBAN COAST.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD UP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE LEAVING VERY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER BETWEEN 40W-59W.  A
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N46W IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DRY
AIR. THIS SET UP IS ALSO HELPING TO ENHANCE ITCZ FLOW IN THE
CONVECTION E OF 41W.  ELSEWHERE...998 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N13W...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTEND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA ALONG 34N29W  AND CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD AS A
DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR 24N18W 23N28W AND THEN CONTINUES WEST AS
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO NEAR 23N39W.  THIS FRONT REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY.


$$
JP/NHC


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