[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 13 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N10W 9N20W 8N35W 9N42W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERARED/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
10W-12W.  SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
20W-35W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39N43W.  ISOLATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 44W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N88W  IN THE CENTRAL
GULF AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD. THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE
AIR. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS COLD
FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
CUBA SW TO WESTERN HONDURAS.  A NARROW BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE.. MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.  POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
SUPPORTING WILDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE
LESSER ANTILLES SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS PRESENT OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT EXTEND FROM
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TO NEAR 30N64W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
EASTERN CUBAN COAST.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD UP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE LEAVING VERY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER BETWEEN 40W-59W.  A
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 45W IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DRY
AIR. THIS SET UP IS HELPING TO ENHANCE ITCZ FLOW IN THE
CONVECTION E OF 41W.  ELSEWHERE...997 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR 35N19W...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTEND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA ALONG 33N13W 24N18W 23N28W AND THEN CONTINUES WEST
AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO NEAR 23N39W.  THIS FRONT REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY.


$$
JP/HC


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