[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 09 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS OF ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 9N40W 9N50W 7N60W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-48W AND 50W-52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-19W...AND BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT
IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS
RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NW AND
NORTHERN GULF. A JET EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND EASTERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THIS JET IS ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO...EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SE GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG THE EXTREME SE
LOUISIANA COAST TO  29N91W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT
FROM 29N91W TO ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST TO JUST WEST OF
BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN BETWEEN
91W-94W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 13N62W TO N OF THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N65W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
OF PANAMA IN THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IS ENHANCING
THIS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST NE OF CENTRAL CUBA TO
28N71W TO BEYOND 32N63W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC N OF 18N W OF 50W. EAST OF THE RIDGE A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N28W 27N40W 22N50W TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N60W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N42W. A DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
NORTHERN AFRICA NEAR 36N7E EXTENDS CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH AND EAST ATLANTIC RIDGE IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS FROM N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N
BETWEEN 27W AND 50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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