[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 08 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS OF ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 6N30W 9N40W 10N50W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-48W AND
50W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT
IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS
RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NW AND
NORTHERN GULF. A JET EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND EASTERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THIS JET IS ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO...EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SE GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG THE EXTREME SE
LOUISIANA COAST TO  29N93W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT
FROM 29N93W TO ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST TO JUST WEST OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU
AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 13N62W TO N OF THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11.5N65W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA IN THE EXTREME SW
CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA/PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST NE OF CENTRAL CUBA TO
28N71W TO BEYOND 32N63W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC N OF 18N W OF 53W. EAST OF THE RIDGE A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N33W 27N40W 22N50W TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N34W TO 27.5N50W. A DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION CENTER
OVER NORTHERN AFRICA EXTENDS CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. DIFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH AND EAST ATLANTIC RIDGE
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS FROM N OF THE ITCZ
TO ABOUT 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W.

$$
BROWN


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