[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 301907 CCA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-302230-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES WESTWARD...

...WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...
AND FOR THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA...PUERTO RICO. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS
OR LESS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
CEIBA...FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS...FOR TUESDAY.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND PUERTO RICO.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA SHOULD PREPARE FOR LIKELY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES
SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY
CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 375 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...OR ABOUT 400 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...OR ABOUT 455 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN.

FRANCES WAS MOVING WEST AT NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND SPREAD
ACROSS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND CULEBRA BY AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. THESE SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CULEBRA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGER WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRANCES COULD
BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME.
FOR PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND JUST BRUSH THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST OR INCREASE
IN THE EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR FRANCES COULD
BRING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND
VIEQUES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM FRANCES WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 8 FEET AND GREATER TONIGHT AND REACHING 12 FEET ON
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN ANEGADA PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SURF AND TIDES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX AND THE EAST
AND SOUTH COASTS OF THE REMAINING U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN FRINGES OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
NUMEROUS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF FRANCES
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. FLOODING OF DRY GUTS AND SMALL STREAMS IN ST THOMAS
AND ST JOHN IS TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ROCK AND LANDSLIDES.
RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING
BANKFULL MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 2:30 PM
BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

/RM

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU



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