[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 301810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON 30 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRANCES IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 58.7W OR ABOUT 191
MILES E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AT 30/1500 UTC...
MOVING W 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 130 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB. SEE
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  FRANCES REMAINS A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS
HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA IS LARGER THAN
YESTERDAY...AND EYE DIAMETER IS SMALLER AT 15 NM.  UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
58W-60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 57W-61W.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.7N 71.5W AT 30/1500
UTC...MOVING N 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC OR
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  T.S. HERMINE HAS MOST
OF ITS CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 34N-37N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

1010 MB LOW IS 100 NM E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N20W
MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 19W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 43W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS WEAK
AND POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER S MEXICO ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING W 15-20 KT.   NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N1W 15N17W 10N30W 9N40W 14N55W
10N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
76W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N86W TO
27N90W 26N94W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 85W-94W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N80W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION  IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N87W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W.

THE W ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA..
EASTERLIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ITCZ CONVECTION NOTED
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.  HURRICANE FRANCES IS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S
TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 15N74W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
68W-80W.  A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR S HONDURAS AT
13N88W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER FRANCES FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 51W-65W.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N55W.  1025 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N23W.    IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N30W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS WSW TO 27N44W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 43W...AND HURRICANE FRANCES IS JUST NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 26N8W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
16N30W 15N50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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