[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT43 KNHC 300829
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5 FROM TAFB...T3.0 FROM
SAB AND T2.5 FROM AIRFORCE GLOBAL.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT.  NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
FORECAST AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/16.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT DOES
NOT MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT.  HERMINE
ACTUALLY ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AND DOES
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE OR TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION BY THAT TIME.  THUS...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
REQUIRED.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 34.6N  71.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 37.0N  71.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 41.5N  69.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 45.7N  65.1W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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