[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 300828
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST THU SEP  2 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

41.5N  69.5W      36  4  X  X 40   PORTLAND ME        7 16  X  X 23
45.7N  65.1W       X 14  X  X 14   BAR HARBOR ME      2 21  X  X 23
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   3  X  X  X  3   EASTPORT ME        X 20  X  X 20
NEW YORK CITY NY   8  X  X  X  8   ST JOHN NB         X 17  X  X 17
MONTAUK POINT NY  31  2  X  X 33   MONCTON NB         X 12  X  X 12
PROVIDENCE RI     29  3  X  X 32   YARMOUTH NS        1 19  X  X 20
NANTUCKET MA      40  2  X  X 42   HALIFAX NS         X 11  X  X 11
HYANNIS MA        35  3  X  X 38   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  2  X  X  2
BOSTON MA         22  7  X  X 29   EDDY POINT NS      X  4  X  X  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
C FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
D FROM  2AM WED TO  2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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