[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT43 KNHC 300238
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM BOTH
SAB AND AIRFORCE GLOBAL.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 40 KTS.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SAME
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST.  ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED AND...BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE
MERGED WITH OR BEEN ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON.  THIS MERGER OR ABSORPTION
MEANS THAT NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY.
HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0300Z 33.2N  71.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 35.1N  71.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 37.9N  71.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 41.2N  70.4W    45 KT...ABSORBED



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