[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 290229
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST
PERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POSITIONS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 18.3N  53.4W   115 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.8N  54.5W   120 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N  56.3W   125 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N  58.6W   125 KT
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.1N  61.1W   125 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N  66.3W   125 KT
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N  70.6W   125 KT
120HR VT     03/0000Z 24.0N  74.0W   125 KT


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