[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 290229
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  53.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.4N  56.3W      46  X  X  X 46   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  2 12 14
19.8N  58.6W      10 23  X  X 33   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X 10 10
20.1N  61.1W       X 12 14  1 27   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  3  3
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  1  2  3   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  1 11 12
80400 157N 636W    X  X  1  4  5   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  3  3
TFFR 163N 615W     X  1  3  4  8   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  4  4
TAPA 171N 618W     X  2  7  3 12   ST CROIX VI        X  X  2 10 12
TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  7  6 13   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  2 12 14
TNCM 181N 631W     X  X 10  6 16   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  1 11 12
TISX 177N 648W     X  X  2 10 12   PONCE PR           X  X  X 10 10

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
C FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
D FROM  8PM MON TO  8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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