[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT72 KNHC 280850
SPFAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.5N  79.5W      99  X  X  X 99   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  1  7  8
32.2N  79.9W      50  X  X  X 50   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  5  5
33.0N  80.0W      28  1  X  1 30   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL     X  1  1  2  4   TAMPA FL           X  X  1  2  3
DAYTONA BEACH FL   4  2  1  2  9   CEDAR KEY FL       X  2  2  3  7
JACKSONVILLE FL   11  4  1  1 17   ST MARKS FL        X  2  3  3  8
SAVANNAH GA       22  2  1  X 25   APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  1  3  5
CHARLESTON SC     30  1  X  1 32   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2  3  5
MYRTLE BEACH SC   17  3  2  1 23   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  1  2  3
WILMINGTON NC      7  7  3  3 20   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  2  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   1  7  4  4 16   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1  3  4
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  3  4  6 13   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2
NORFOLK VA         X  1  4  7 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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