[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT42 KNHC 280847
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM CHARLESTON SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER IN A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
2.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FORCE
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND STEER THE CYCLONE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0900Z 31.2N  78.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 31.3N  78.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  79.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 32.2N  79.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 34.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 39.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     02/0600Z 42.5N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net