[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT35 KNHC 160238
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

...EARL REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT
500 MILES...805 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN THE STORM INDICATED THAT
EARL WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION.
TOMORROW'S RECONNAISSANCE MISSION MAY FIND THAT EARL HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  HOWEVER...IF EARL IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION...THEN SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 65.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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