[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 150231
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 4.0...4.0...AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AFWA...AND
TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 0000 UTC INDICATES THAT
DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A 2247 UTC
SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE.
DANIELLE IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO 65 KT...THE THIRD HURRICANE OF
THE SEASON.  SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/13.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO
TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS TO THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0300Z 14.2N  30.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.9N  31.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.2N  33.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.7N  35.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.1N  37.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N  40.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 25.0N  42.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 28.0N  43.0W    65 KT

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