[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 150230
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS PREDICTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST
COURSE.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN.  THUS...THE
FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0300Z 11.3N  56.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 12.3N  59.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 13.6N  63.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.8N  67.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.8N  70.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.7N  76.6W    70 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N  81.3W    75 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 21.1N  85.1W    80 KT


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