[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 141450
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED ALONG A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS.   HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LINES OF
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...INITIAL MOTION
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER...285/20.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...BUT IS LARGELY AN UPDATE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 10.4N  52.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.5N  55.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 12.9N  58.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.2N  62.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N  66.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N  73.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N  79.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.5N  84.0W    80 KT

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