[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 130611
HLSEYW
FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-131000-

HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
210 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...SEEK SECURE SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING IMMEDIATELY...

...ALL HURRICANE PREPARATIONS AND EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED...

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO BEYOND
THE DRY TORTUGAS...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR ANY NOTICES FROM LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE AFFECTS
OF HURRICANE CHARLEY.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS IN MONROE
COUNTY...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS IN MONROE
COUNTY FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH AND STORM SURGE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL
800 AM THIS MORNING.

...STORM INFORMATION....
KEY WEST AND CUBAN RADAR INDICATE THAT AT 2 AM EDT...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED...BEGINNING A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE GREATEST THREAT
OF STORM SURGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST.
ALSO...DAMAGING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO THE STORM
SURGE. AS HURRICANE CHARLEY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST
OF THE LOWER KEYS...THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN...ATLANTIC SHORES OF THE KEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND KEY WEST. THE NEXT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE AT 842
AM THIS MORNING...AND 1020 PM THIS EVENING AT KEY WEST HARBOR. HIGH
TIDES AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON WILL BE AT 731 AM THIS MORNING...AND
909 PM THIS EVENING.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF HURRICANE CHARLEY...WHICH IS HIGHLY FAVORED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL
RISK FOR TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF CHARLEY WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN AFFECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

...WIND IMPACTS...
PERIODIC SQUALLS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH AND GREATER WILL ARRIVE WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND THEN SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST...AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IT IS IMPERATIVE YOU DO NOT VENTURE OUT ON
AREA ROADWAYS...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN TO TAKE SHELTER WITHIN AN
ENCLOSED INTERIOR ROOM OF YOUR RESIDENCE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARRIVE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACT...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD NOT LEAVE PORT.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
SPREAD OVER THE KEYS...AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY OVER THE KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF STORM SURGE FLOODING PREVENTS RAINWATER
DRAINAGE.

...STRIKE PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST IS CURRENTLY 67 PERCENT...AND 46 PERCENT FOR
MARATHON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 600 AM.
$$

LK/JR





























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