[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021949
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Eastern Tennessee into eastern
Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...77...

Valid 021949Z - 022145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75, 77 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential will continue into the evening as
additional storms do appear probable. Wind profiles will remain
favorable, but thermodynamic profiles are less supportive. A new
tornado watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to mature and organize across
much of Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. The 18Z observed sounding
from Nashville showed very favorable wind profile for rotating
storms, though the thermodynamic profile indicated weak lapse rates
due to the influence of earlier convection/precipitation. Lack of
cloud cover near the surface boundary within the Mississippi Valley
has allowed some destabilization to occur and cumulus continue to
deepen in this area. Mid-level height falls will continue to
increase into the evening and the wind profile should still favor
tornado potential with any organized storms. That being said,
additional storms appear probable later this afternoon into the
evening either with the boundary or moving northeast out of
Mississippi. The main question will be how intense this activity
will be given the thermodynamic constraints. With WW 75 set to
expire at 3 PM CDT, a new watch will be needed to account for some
continued tornado potential into the evening.

..Wendt.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35068608 34378780 34008884 33848921 33948966 34508972
            35598884 35988846 36318806 36448725 37218542 37368439
            37958315 38008309 37618250 37288254 36598295 36248369
            35768468 35068608

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