[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021332
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of western/middle TN and western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021332Z - 021500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe threat will probably persist this morning as
thunderstorms spread northeastward. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of convection is ongoing
this morning over southwestern TN and vicinity. While the boundary
layer is only modestly unstable per 12Z BNA sounding and recent RAP
forecast soundings over western TN, strong deep-layer shear
associated with a pronounced mid/upper-level jet is present over the
lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Given the somewhat linear nature
of the ongoing cluster, strong to damaging winds should be the main
threat in the near term. But, the presence of a strong southwesterly
low-level jet and effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2 suggests that
tornadoes will also be a concern with either line-embedded
circulations, or with any supercells that can develop and persist.
Trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance,
pending signs of greater convective organization/intensity.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35388990 36298962 36878896 37048824 36948750 36668712
            36158701 35558712 35128795 35028873 35388990
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