[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 250356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250355
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-250630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...south central and southeastern Kentucky...middle
into eastern Tennessee....northern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 77...

Valid 250355Z - 250630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 77 continues.

SUMMARY...An organized line of thunderstorms may pose a continuing
risk for damaging wind gusts another couple of hours, but this
threat probably will diminish across the Cumberland Plateau by 2-3
AM EDT.  A new severe weather watch currently seems unlikely, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A well organized convective system continues to evolve
to the east and south of the mesoscale convective vortex, preceded
by a notable meso low migrating northeastward near/northwest through
north of Nashville vicinity.  Richer boundary-layer moisture
characterized by 60s F+ dewpoints is becoming cut off near the
southern Tennessee border, which model forecast soundings indicate
will minimize destabilization northeastward across middle Tennessee
toward the Cumberland Plateau.  However, 70s F+ surface temperatures
have been maintained in a plume wrapping into the center of the meso
low.

Given the strength of the west-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric
wind fields (40-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) impinging on the
rear of the convective system, the low-level thermodynamic profiles
with warm and unsaturated layers may support a continuing risk for
downward mixing of potentially damaging gusts to the surface.  This
probably will persist at least another hour or two, but may begin to
diminish as forcing for ascent spreads into the Cumberland Plateau
toward 06-07Z, where the boundary layer remains cooler and warm
advection may not contribute to appreciable warming.

..Kerr.. 03/25/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36138439 35228521 34178754 34398820 35598709 36798679
            37098425 36138439
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