[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260117
TNZ000-KYZ000-260315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...Central and eastern Kentucky...middle and eastern
Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 260117Z - 260315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms over northern Kentucky will
move southeast through the remainder of this evening with a
continued risk for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado
or two.  A downstream watch is likely prior to 03z.

DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue along the Ohio
River across northern Kentucky and extreme southern Indiana at
0110z. These storms have produced scattered reports of large hail
over the past hour. Latest mesoanalysis shows gradually increasing
CINH across eastern portions of Kentucky/Tennessee in the wake of
earlier storms/convective outflow, with the greatest instability
(MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) across south-central Kentucky and
middle Tennessee. As storms continue to develop and evolve into
clusters/short line segments, the risk for damaging winds, hail and
perhaps a tornado or two will likely increase to the southeast and
south of ongoing storms. Despite the increasing inhibition, some
severe potential may exist over eastern Kentucky/Tennessee this
evening, with greater potential across south-central Kentucky south
into middle Tennessee.

Trends are being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to
03z.

..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37618653 38368535 38348470 38248425 37838392 37358388
            36708387 35568473 35388563 35888690 36788734 37618653
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