[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 112144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112143
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-112315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern AR...northern MS...western to
Middle TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...266...

Valid 112143Z - 112315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265, 266
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging gusts and large hail is expected to
increase over the next 1-2 hours from parts of eastern Arkansas and
northern Mississippi into western and Middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Mostly discrete cellular convection will continue to
shift east the next few hours. Recent radar trends have shown
increasing intensity in this activity, especially over eastern AR
and western TN, with more modest intensification toward Middle TN.
These storms will continue to shift into moderate to strong
instability over the next few hours. Steep to very steep low-level
lapse rates are in place downstream of this ongoing activity with
MLCAPE values ranging from 1500 J/kg across Middle TN to 3000 J/kg
further west. Vertical shear remains favorable for organized
convection, though is somewhat lower over Middle TN and becomes
stronger with western extent into northern MS. VWP data from NQA
also shows a bit more elongated hodographs compared to the hodograph
at OHX as well, suggesting some better potential for large hail.

Overall this environment should support increasing potential for
large hail and damaging gusts over the next couple hours. With time,
potential exists for some upscale development into bowing clusters
via storm interactions and consolidating outflows.

..Leitman.. 06/11/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36498615 36388590 36188577 35948580 35548612 35128720
            34508881 34118979 34059091 34119137 34289167 34539172
            34879151 35219096 35578989 36048814 36528679 36528655
            36498615
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