[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111856
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-112130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...from much of central and western Kentucky into
Tennessee and northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 111856Z - 112130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to develop by 20Z
from western Kentucky and Tennessee into northeast Arkansas.
Scattered wind damage and sporadic hail will be possible.

DISCUSSION...An initial wave is currently moving across southern IL
into IN, with an associated area of showers and thunderstorms. These
storms extend from a surface low near the IL/IN border, curving
southwestward toward the MO/AR border. Shear remains weak over
northern areas, with the stronger midlevel flow south of the OH
River and into AR.

Heating continues to gradually destabilize the air mass ahead of the
initial wave, with MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg over KY and TN.
Stronger instability exists over AR, where temperatures are warmer.

Visible imagery shows Cu fields from KY into TN, while surface
observations indicate the strongest convergence from northeast AR
into western KY. This general zone may be the most likely zone for
diurnal development later today.

Winds aloft are generally averaging 30-40 kt, with speeds
approaching 50 kt at 500 mb noted on HPX/OHX/LVX VWPs. This will
support deep-layer shear favorable for a few long-lived storms,
possible a mixture of cellular and linear storm modes, moving
southeastward later today and into the evening. Scattered damaging
winds appear to be the main concern, with sporadic large hail
possible as well as midlevel temperatures remain cool and the air
mass destabilizes further.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/11/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35068904 34969008 34969052 35059092 35269108 35569115
            35909107 36099091 36319063 36469020 36858887 37298819
            38018750 38398700 38408622 38268568 38008524 37708511
            37228518 36558560 35958650 35638736 35068904
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