[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292130
NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-292300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292130Z - 292300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat will exist with storms
drifting south through Middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the surface front near the
Tennessee/Kentucky border west of watch 570. These storms have
formed in a region with strong instability (2500 to 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and weak effective shear (~15 knots per OHX VWP). The weak
shear will likely limit overall organization with a more outflow
dominant line expected. However, given the hot, moist, and unstable
downstream environment, some stronger, water-loaded downdrafts are
possible with some threat for damaging wind gusts. A severe
thunderstorm watch is unlikely, unless the line of storms begins to
show better organization and a greater threat for damaging wind
gusts.

..Bentley/Grams.. 07/29/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36458701 36528682 36428613 36398582 36488552 36668500
            36718463 36338370 35438363 35238483 35258631 35428687
            35708758 36058739 36458701
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